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Austin, George April 24, 1984 Page 6 Conclusions - Total Development 1 . We have serious reservations that the Rural Insurance total develop- ment proposal of 7,000 jobs can be completed in the 20-year time frame set forth. We conclude this because: a) Without a market study completed to determine whether there is an established demand for the number of these kinds of sites, it is problamatic, at best, to assume a full employment of 7,000 employees in 20 years. For example: Golf Green Park in the City of Middleton, which allows a wide variety of tenants to locate there, acquired 36 businesses in 14 years - an average of 3 per year. There are currently 60 developed acres and about 400 employees at Golf Green Park. b) Considering the numerous other proposed or existing research or industrial parks, e.g. UW Charmany-Reider proposal , Middleton Golf Green Park, the Wisconsin for Research option at the Giddings-Lewis site, the Broadway-Highway 51 industrial area, the City of Fitchburg's proposed industrial area, Truax Air Park - East and West, plus the planned industrial areas in outlying communities, it seems to us that full development of this site in 20 years is unlikely. This does not present a problem in analyzing the impacts, however. 2. If an estimated 6,000 employees are shifted from other locations in the region to this site, we can anticipate an impact on other exis- ting and proposed employment locations in the region. Existing employment locations could expect a loss of businesses and employees, and other proposed employment locations can expect to grow more slowly. 3. Because the majority of the projected employment for the site is primarily anticipated to be shifted from other areas, it can be assumed that these people are already housed in Dane County. It is recognized that some of these would choose to move to a new location more convenient to work; however we feel our population and dwelling • unit forecasts, previously noted, are realistic, particularly if the time frame of total development is extended. 4. Reviewing the preliminary plat map implies extensive grading re- quired to accomplish the proposed development. It is our hope that the grading could take advantage of the natural terrain to the fullest extent possible. 5. It would seem prudent to closely monitor the development of both the research park and new housing in western Dane County and the three western sectors of the central urban service area during