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rpri l 24, 1984 <br /> Page 5 <br /> Considerably more dwelling units located outside the Central Urban <br /> Service Area are anticipated to locate in the outlying urban service <br /> areas than in rural areas. Again, short term forecasts (10-year) of <br /> dwelling units have not been made for these areas either. However, with <br /> 3,530 additional units forecast to locate in these service areas by <br /> 2010, it seems reasonable that about a third of this total or about <br /> 1 ,200 units might be built in the western Dane County urban service <br /> areas between 1980 and 1990. <br /> Conclusions - Phase I <br /> Based upon our projections of population, dwelling units and employment <br /> for the various sectors within the central urban service area and the <br /> outlying areas, it appears that Phase I of the RIK proposal would not <br /> significantly alter the patterns of new housing location in western Dane <br /> County. This is principally because Phase I anticipates relocation of <br /> jobs already in the region, and employees are not expected to rapidly <br /> change their residential location to be closer to this employment location. <br /> In addition, we believe the land use controls currently in effect, e.g. <br /> city and county subdivision ordinances, county exclusive agricultural <br /> zoning, county sanitary codes, DNR rules affecting sanitary sewer <br /> extensions, and adopted county and local land use plans will direct most <br /> new residential development into the central and outlying urban service • <br /> areas, and minimize scattered rural residential development. <br /> There would be a much greater impact on the environmental and traffic <br /> movement issues. These are addressed and analyzed separately in this <br /> paper. <br /> Total Development Impacts <br /> The total development of the proposal , to be completed in about 20 <br /> years, projects about 7,000 jobs on the site. Of these, roughly 1 ,000 <br /> would be new added jobs; the remainder are anticipated to be shifted <br /> from other locations in the region. <br /> Assessing the long range impacts of a development of this magnitude is <br /> even more difficult than for the short range phase. Our forecasts of <br /> employment indicate a total of 15,869 new jobs to be added in the three <br /> western sectors of the central urban service area. The 7,000 jobs <br /> projected by city staff to be located on the Rural Insurance site would <br /> be close to half that figure. While about 6,000 of the 7,000 jobs are <br /> not anticipated to be new jobs, they are new to this site and therefore <br /> would have significant localized impacts. Several major localized <br /> impacts would certainly be on traffic generation and environmental <br /> aspects - particularly stormwater runoff. These impacts are, again, <br /> discussed later. - <br /> • RPC <br />